I am trying here to qualify the actions of BA.
SUMMARY
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1) Which is the significance of naming the B777 and seemingly excluding the B748i as competitors for the 2nd. Round? Is BA drifting away from future VLA use?
2)) Why they chose to limit the order, letting open the door for a 2nd. Round?
3) Which are the implications of the 12 A380 order?
4) Was the A380 order influenced by BA external considerations? [/i][/b]
5) Timing of the deliveries of this 1st and of orders/deliveries of the 2nd Round and consequences on the aircraft selection for 2nd. Round) [/i][/b]
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1) [/i] Which is the significance of naming the B777 and seemingly excluding the B748i as competitors for the 2nd. Round? Is BA drifting away from future VLA use??[/i]
a) It is very interesting to see that BA, as already noticeable at Cathay, and further by the lack of mention of the B748i, seem to drift away from the use of VLA, except on a few routes with extreme high pax and/or airport saturation
This implies that BA intends to cover the vast majority of the B744 routes with somewhat smaller 350 pax planes and in case that the pax volume so justifies, increase the frequency or add a smaller B787-8 or 9
b) If this tendency becomes general, the forecast of a VLA duplication in 20 years will prove totally wrong.
2) [/i]Why they chose to limit the order, letting open the door for a 2nd.
Round?[/i]
a) Obviously, basing on what is said above in 1), given the still not defined situation of the B787-10X, A350-1000 and B777-300ER upgrade, they need for clarification of these issues before ordering.
b) But in case that they finally come to the conviction that 350 pax aircraft are too small for an important number of missions, IMO the B748i will become again a leading alternative.
3) Which are the implications of the 12 A380 order?
Even if it constitutes the first new customer order in 2 years, which is positive, its limited size, similar as in case of LH and AF, shows clearly that these extremely experienced airlines consider this aircraft adequate only for a relatively small percentage of the present VLA need estimations (see also 1b.)
This would mean that the break-even figure, indicated by Airbus ¡°clearly above 400¡±, probably 500-600, is not achievable.
It goes without saying that it constitutes also bad new for the B748i, even if softened by the fact that this relatively low cost derivative could break even solely with the cargo version and by the said in 2b. applied to any airline.
4) Was the A380 order influenced by BA external considerations?
a) The answer is a clear YES, as foreseen by me and other, in spite flames by some A-netters
The same A-netters accept without protesting that BA has a preference (other parameters being equal) for the British RR (even if they accept GE engines as the large quantity their B777-200ER proves), but seem not to be able to accept such preference for other British components as for the A380 and more important, to avoid
that the French-German lead EADS/Airbus pulls manufactures and jobs out of the UK!
b) Notwithstanding, as the decision between the A380 and B748i was nearly a draw, BA does not have any negative consequence by the purchase of the A380, which is adequate for their needs (and probably was very low priced)
5) [ Timing of the deliveries of this 1st and of orders/deliveries of the 2nd Round and consequences on the aircraft selection for 2nd.
Round)
As supported by my Replies 10 and 41 on the thread °BA's next fleet decision
2008-2009"
BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009 (by Revelation Sep 27 2007 in Civil Aviation)#last
the aircraft ordered in the second round must be delivered 2013/2014, as BA will be
not able to operate later B744 with fuel burn possibly 40% higher then the
competing models then available. Therefore, the second round aircraft must be
available by then. As the A350-1000 cannot be so, it will be out of competition.
Boeing would be able to supply the B787-10X in time, but it is not sure if the would
be willing to do so, which would limit the choice to the B777-300ER and eventually
an upgrade of this model!
