Ny rekord igjen for oljeprisen og dollaren

[Someone]

Originally Posted by Someone

Da har oljen på 1,5 dag gått fra $120 til under $104

NOK svekker seg også da USD på 8,67 pg EUR 9,63

Mye kan skje på 1,5 måned. Oljeprisen er jo stabil, men plutselig står USD i 9,6 og EUR i 10,2

[OJB]

Dagens faste pris er 105.94 USD/fat

Sakset fra World Oil idag ;

Big Oil spends on investors, not output, prolonging crude crunch
Kevin Crowley and Laura Hurst 5/9/2022

(Bloomberg) — Big Oil is raking in historic amounts of cash, but the windfall isn’t being invested in new production to help displace Russian oil and gas. Instead, executives are rewarding shareholders -- setting the world up for an even tighter energy market in the years ahead.


The West’s five biggest oil companies together earned $36.6 billion over and above their spending in the first quarter, or about $400 million in spare cash a day. It was the second-highest quarterly free cash flow on record and enough to relegate billions of dollars of Russia-related writedowns to mere footnotes in their recent earnings reports.

Oil booms typically spark a chase for higher production -- but not this time. All five supermajors have kept their capital expenditure budgets firmly in check and pledged that this discipline will hold in future years -- even as oil prices have closed above $100 a barrel on all but five days since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. With wells naturally declining in production every year and large projects taking half a decade or more to come online, any expansion lag happening now will push the possibility of new production even further into the future.

“In prior cycles of high oil prices, the majors would be investing heavily in long-cycle deepwater projects that wouldn’t see production for many years,” said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages $361 billion. “Those type of projects are just off the table right now.”

In short, if consumers are looking for Big Oil to replace Russian production with any urgency, they better look elsewhere.

The last time crude was consistently over $100 a barrel in 2013, Big Oil’s combined capital expenditure was $158.7 billion, almost double what the companies are currently spending, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The group includes Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE, BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.

“Discipline is the order of the day,” BP Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney told analysts Tuesday. The London-based major isn’t budging on its $14 billion to $15 billion spending plans for the year, with its mid-term guidance creeping up to a maximum of $16 billion despite 10% cost inflation in some parts of its business.

Shell, which posted record profits that exceeded even the highest analyst estimate, was equally clear. In her first set of results as chief financial officer, Sinead Gorman repeated time and time again that Shell would keep within its $23 billion to $27 billion range. “Nothing has changed in terms of our capital allocation framework,” she said.

Instead of spending on new projects, companies are opting to reward shareholders after years of poor returns. Exxon, BP and TotalEnergies increased share buybacks while Chevron is already repurchasing record amounts of stock.

There are clear reasons why Big Oil is choosing not to spend more. Chief among them are climate concerns and uncertainty over the future direction of oil demand. Years of pressure from investors, politicians and climate activists came to a head in the past two years, when all the oil majors pledged some form of net zero target by mid-century. BP and Shell actively positioned themselves to move away from oil and gas over the long-term. All are under added pressure to improve returns that dwindled over the past decade due to cost blowouts and low prices.

“Any decision to increase, support or add-in new fossil projects today could see returns risk within a few years,” said Banco Santander SA analyst Jason Kenney. Climate change, technology developments like electric cars and rapidly evolving government policy on emissions are major risks today when deciding whether to invest billions in a new project, he said.

Against that backdrop, investment in the upstream oil and gas sector slumped 30% in 2020, while last year’s spend of $341 billion was 23% below pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Forum wrote in a report.

“Two years in a row of large and abrupt underinvestment in oil and gas development is a recipe for higher prices and volatility later this decade,” warned Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF.

That message has not gone down well with consumers around the globe. From Pakistan to Paris, billions of people are suffering a cost-of-living crisis fueled in large part by high energy costs. In the U.S., President Joe Biden has implored oil companies to reinvest profits from surging oil prices into more production to help ease the shortages caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine. Some U.S. and European politicians have called for a windfall tax on companies’ profits to help ease the burden on consumers.

To be fair, that doesn’t mean companies aren’t investing in growth at all. But they will “focus only on low risk, high return assets” such as shale or expanding offshore fields near existing operations, according to Kenney.

Exxon and Chevron, for instance, are spending aggressively to grow production in the U.S.’s Permian Basin, the world largest shale oil region, with planned growth rates of 25% and 15%, respectively. BP is boosting investment in U.S. shale, but the company won’t be able to ramp up Permian production until it finishes building two large gathering systems at the end of the year.

However, most Permian growth will largely offset declines from elsewhere in the U.S. supermajors’ global portfolio, rather than adding to total barrels. Exxon’s first quarter production of 3.7 million barrels per day was the lowest since its merger with Mobil in the late 1990s. Together Exxon and Chevron plan to spend more on buybacks and dividends this year than they do on production.

“For so long the industry has been told by investors and politicians we need less oil and executives remember that,” said Barrett of Janus Henderson. “If the world needs an extra million barrels a day to ease prices, I’m not sure where it will come from.”

[OJB]

Dagens faste pris er 102.05 USD/fat , noe ned fra igår

[OJB]

Dagens faste pris er 108.04 USD/fat

Sakset fra World Oil idag;

Saudi Aramco becomes world’s most valuable stock as Apple drops
Ryan Vlastelica and Matt Turner 5/12/2022

(Bloomberg) — Saudi Aramco overtook Apple Inc. as the world’s most valuable company, stoked by a surge in oil prices that is buoying the crude producer while adding to an inflation surge throttling demand for technology stocks.


Aramco traded near its highest level on record on Wednesday, with a market capitalization of about $2.43 trillion, surpassing that of Apple for the first time since 2020. The iPhone maker fell 5.2% to close at $146.50 per share, giving it a valuation of $2.37 trillion.

Even if the move proves short-lived and Apple retakes the top spot again, the role reversal underscores the power of major forces coursing through the global economy.

Soaring oil prices, while great for profits at Aramco, are exacerbating rising inflation that is forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. The higher rates go, the more investors discount the value of future revenue flows from tech companies and push down their stock prices.

“You can’t compare Apple to Saudi Aramco in terms of their businesses or fundamentals, but the outlook for the commodity space has improved. They’re the beneficiaries of inflation and tight supply,” said James Meyer, chief investment officer at Tower Bridge Advisors.

Earlier this year, Apple boasted a market value of $3 trillion, about $1 trillion more than Aramco’s. Since then, however, Apple has fallen nearly 20% while Aramco is up 28%.

Apple representatives didn’t respond to a request for comment.

With the Fed on pace to further raise rates by at least another 150 basis points this year and with no prospects yet of a resolution for the conflict in Ukraine, it may be a while until tech regains dominance, according to Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder.

“There’s panic selling in a lot of tech and other high-multiple names, and the money coming out of there seems headed in particular for energy, which for now has a favorable outlook, given commodity prices,” he said. “Companies like Aramco are benefitting significantly from this environment.”

[OJB]

Dagens pris kryper oppover ; 111.55 USD/fat

Fra dagens World Oil;

Oil gains as investors weigh Russian ban and China outlook
Elizabeth Low and Alex Longley 5/15/2022

(Bloomberg) — Oil climbed, bookending another tumultuous week of trading, as investors weighed the prospect of a European Union ban on Russian crude and uncertainty over China’s virus resurgence.


West Texas Intermediate rose 2.7% while gasoline futures hit a record high. Some EU nations said the bloc may have to consider delaying a proposed oil embargo if it can’t get Hungary to agree to it. Meanwhile, authorities in Beijing denied rumors that the city will go into lockdown even as new Covid-19 cases climbed.

Investors are also assessing the impact of shrinking American fuel stockpiles ahead of the summer driving season. Gasoline futures in the U.S. are trading $55 a barrel above crude, the widest gap in years. Retail prices of the motor fuel also climbed to a fresh record, AAA data showed Friday.

Oil has swung sharply within a band of about $12 this week. Although China’s virus outbreak and Russia’s war in Ukraine have contributed to choppy trading since late February, in recent days the specter of higher interest rates and rampant inflation have also weighed on risk sentiment.

“The rollercoaster ride shows no signs of stopping,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. “At the forefront of the oil market -- and the broader risk-asset complex for that matter -- are growing fears of an inflation-driven global recession.”

WTI for June delivery rose 2.7% to $108.97 a barrel on Friday, while futures were down 0.8%. Brent for July settlement gained 2.5% to $110.12 a barrel. The prompt time spread was $1.68 in backwardation, compared with $1.34 at the start of the week.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said that a refining crunch — rather than any shortage of crude — is driving the surge in fuel costs to unprecedented levels. He added that the world is running out of energy capacity at all levels.

There was also a glimmer of hope on Friday in efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, with EU envoy Enrique Mora’s visit to Tehran going better than expected, according to the bloc’s foreign policy chief. Expectations had been fading that talks would resume.

[OJB]

Dagens faste prise er 109.04 USD/fat

Sakset fra dagens World Oil;

U.S. to ease sanctions on Venezuela, enabling cargoes to Europe
Jennifer Jacobs, Daniel Flatley, Justin Sink and Fabiola Zerpa 5/18/2022

(Bloomberg) — The Biden administration plans to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil in a bid to bring more of the country’s crude to Europe.


The U.S. will allow European companies still operating in Venezuela to divert more oil to the continent immediately while Chevron will be allowed to negotiate a resumption of operations in the country, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail the plans. The U.S.-backed Venezuelan opposition supports the move, the person said.

The easing of penalties come as tightening global oil supplies send the cost of crude and fuels skyward, threatening to worsen already historic inflation. More barrels from Venezuela would help alleviate the supply crunch while also aiding Europe in weaning itself from Russian energy amid the superpower’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. benchmark crude fell on the news.

The move is meant to facilitate negotiations between the government of President Nicolas Maduro and the American-backed opposition, according to a second person who spoke on condition of anonymity. But it’s politically contentious, with some lawmakers arguing that the move only bolsters Maduro’s regime.

Italy’s Eni SpA and Spain’s Repsol SA are the only major European oil producers with operations in the country. They are working with the Biden administration to divert Venezuelan oil bound for China to Europe, one of the people said.

While Chevron currently isn’t allowed to drill for or export oil from Venezuela, the resumption of talks with state-owned PDVSA paves the way for the San Ramon, California-based company to obtain a new license allowing it to resume operations. It also signals that Venezuelan oil may be coming to the U.S., one person said.

Venezuela Vice President Delcy Rodriguez confirmed that the U.S. government authorized U.S. and European oil companies to “negotiate and restart operations” in Venezuela, according to a post on her Twitter account.

The Biden administration will also remove Carlos Erick Malpica Flores, a former PDVSA treasurer and former Treasury secretary, from a sanctions list, one of the people said. Malpica Flores, the nephew of Maduros’ wife, Cilia Flores, was sanctioned in July of 2017 along with 12 other Venezuelans.

The easing of penalties comes after officials from President Joe Biden’s administration visited Caracas, ultimately securing the release of Americans who had been detained in the country.

[OJB]

Dagens faste pris er : 112.55 USD/fat inching up.....

[OJB]

Dagens faste pris er 113.46 USD/fat

Sakset fra dagens World Oil:

Saudi Arabia says it’s done all it can for the oil market
Vivian Nereim 5/24/2022

(Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said there’s nothing more the kingdom can do to tame oil markets, implying that the world’s biggest crude exporter has no plan to accelerate its gradual production increases.


“As far as we are aware there is no shortfall of oil,” Prince Faisal bin Farhan said, speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “We have to be sure that while we transition to a renewable future, there is enough energy in the market. The kingdom has done what it can.”

Prince Faisal was responding to a question about what the US, which has put pressure on the Saudis and other members of OPEC+ to pump faster, could offer Riyadh in return for more crude. His comments echoed those of Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, who said in an interview this month that a refining crunch was to blame for soaring fuel prices.

“It’s much more complex than just bringing barrels to the market,” Prince Faisal said. “Our assessment is that actually oil supply right now is relatively in balance.”

Oil prices have climbed almost 70% in the past year to around $110 a barrel, first as demand rebounded from the coronavirus pandemic and then after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, a 23-nation group led by Riyadh and Russia, are raising daily crude production by around 430,000 barrels each month. Major importers including the US and Japan have called on the alliance, known as OPEC+, to increase output more quickly. The group’s struggling to reach even its current monthly target, with many members pumping below their quotas.

Pump prices for gasoline and diesel have hit record highs in the US in recent weeks, pushing up inflation putting pressure on US President Joe Biden ahead of November’s mid-term elections.

Saudi Arabia and neighboring United Arab Emirates have said that fuel prices have jumped so much because of a lack of investment in refineries across the world in the past several years. Pumping more crude would do little to help the market because refineries are largely at full capacity, they’ve argued.

[OJB]

Dagens pris er 117.40 USD/fat

Sakset fra dagens World Oil:

Saudi Arabia’s making $1 billion from oil exports every day
Abeer Abu Omar 5/26/2022

(Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia’s oil exports reached $30 billion in March, the highest in at least six years, driven by a rally in oil prices and rising production.


The value of crude exports, now almost $1 billion a day, increased by 123% year on year, the kingdom’s statistics office said.

Saudi Arabia’s crude production rose to 10.3 million barrels a day in March, with Brent oil prices averaging $112 a barrel. Prices have jumped almost 50% this year, mostly due to the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The higher revenues helped the kingdom post a 57.5 billion riyal ($15 billion) budget surplus between January and March. It will be one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Saudi Arabia’s top five trading partners were a collection of some of the world’s biggest oil importers: China, India, Japan, followed by South Korea and the US.

Overall exports increased 93% in March to $37.9 billion. The share of oil exports in the total figure stood at 80% in March, up from 70% a year earlier.

The oil-export figures may continue to grow because OPEC+, a 23 nation group of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is raising production each month under a deal that expires around September.

[OJB]

Dagens faste pris er 119.45 USD/fat

Boris Johnson says UK must keep North Sea oil and gas flowing
Kitty Donaldson and Ellen Milligan 5/27/2022

(Bloomberg) — Boris Johnson said he wants to keep North Sea oil and gas flowing to help tackle the rising cost of living and urged companies to boost investment.

The prime minister’s comments underscore the contortions forced upon UK energy policy by the inflation crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The government is breaking climate pledges made as host of the COP26 conference in December by mounting a £5 billion tax raid on the oil and gas industry that will subsidize fuel consumption and incentivize drilling.

“I don’t think we can turn our backs entirely on hydrocarbons,” Johnson said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday. “The UK actually has a flourishing sector in the northeast of Scotland. It’s very important, we’ve got to keep that going.”

In his drive to lower the cost of energy by boosting supply, Johnson also stressed the importance of further investment in green technology and renewables.

“To tackle inflation in the medium-term, you’ve got to deal with supply-side issues,” he said. “So we need the energy companies to be putting some more into hydrocarbons, but we also need the whole country to be investing in more low-carbon energy.”

On Thursday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced a 25% levy on the profits of UK oil and gas producers, saying he would use the funds to help consumers pay their soaring energy bills. In an attempt to not deter investment, Sunak said companies will be able to avoid some of this levy by making fresh investments in oil and gas extraction -- offsetting as much as 80% of new spending. That breaks a COP26 pledge not to subsidize fossil fuels production.

While most oil and gas companies acknowledged that Sunak was responding to an urgent real cost-of-living crisis, the industry reacted with a mixture of caution and disappointment. BP Plc said it would have to look again at its investment plans in the UK because the chancellor’s new levy is a “multiyear proposal” rather than a “one-off tax.”

Johnson said the UK will have a “regime that’s going to continue to encourage companies to invest” and said he’d spoken to the chief executive officers of BP, Shell Plc and others. “I’m confident the UK will continue to be incredibly attractive for investment, not least in green technology and both BP and Shell are keen to do that,” he said. fra World Oil idag;

[OJB]

Dagens faste pris er 123.00 USD/fat trender oppover

Sakset fra dagens World Oil:

OPEC+ seen sticking with supply plan even as EU sanctions Russia
Grant Smith, Ben Bartenstein and Salma El Wardany 5/31/2022

(Bloomberg) — The OPEC+ coalition will likely hold firm to its oil production plans this week even as the European Union moves to sanction group member Russia, delegates said.


Global oil supply and demand levels remain stable, with no severe disruption yet to Russian exports, and thus require little action from the 23-nation alliance, according to the officials. With most members besides Saudi Arabia and its neighbors struggling to increase production, the group’s decisions are in any case becoming largely symbolic.

Oil prices continue to climb, surpassing $124 a barrel in London on Tuesday, as the EU’s planned embargo stands to tighten a global market already squeezed by rising fuel consumption and limited supplies. The rally has fed into the inflationary pressure that threatens to tip the global economy into recession, and the cost-of-living crisis hitting consumers around the world.

Spiraling costs pose a growing political risk for U.S. President Joe Biden, who has called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to open the taps and is mulling a visit to Saudi Arabia to try and repair frayed diplomatic relations.

Riyadh and its partners -- who still hold several million barrels of untapped spare capacity -- have so far remained unmoved, however.

OPEC has already “done all it can” to stabilize global markets, which face no shortfall of oil, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Prices are being whipped up not by a shortage of crude, but a lack of refining capacity in consuming nations to produce fuels like gasoline, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this month.

[Desk pilot]

Trafigura-sjefen tror det er veldig sannsynlig at oljeprisen kan stige til 150 dollar fatet.

Toppsjef Jeremy Weir i råvaretradinghuset Trafigura advarer om at oljemarkedet kan nå «parabolske tilstander» med rekordhøye priser som kan utløse en oppbremsing av global økonomi.

https://investor.dn.no/#!/Oversikt/Direkte/113185

[Someone]

Da er USD/NOK straks oppe på 10.....

[SudCaravelle]

Noe sier meg at den kommende 26 dagers ferien i USA med tre barn kan gi bra med ekstrapoeng på Amexet

[LN-RTP]

Originally Posted by Someone

Da er USD/NOK straks oppe på 10.....

Flott: Akkurat like før Norges ferien min starter, da blir det rimelig utepils og rimelig rekesmørbrød.

[SudCaravelle]

Originally Posted by LN-RTP

Flott: Akkurat like før Norges ferien min starter, da blir det rimelig utepils og rimelig rekesmørbrød.

"Den enes død, den andres rekesmørbrød"

[LN-MOW]

Mens andre venter på lønning .... i NOK ....

[LN-RTP]

Originally Posted by SudCaravelle

"Den enes død, den andres rekesmørbrød"

Such is life..

Mens andre venter på lønning .... i NOK ...

Det er vel uansett på tide å stramme inn beltet, Du har levd godt på Norsk lønn
på landsbygda i Georgia lenge.
Best of both worlds.

Jeg gikk på flyskole i USA når US dollar sto i 5 kroner, det var rimelig flyskole i sin tid, under 50 000 NOK.

"Timing is everything" sies det...

[Someone]

Qantas reduserer flyvninger innenriks kommer vinter (deres sommer) på grunn av høye drivstoffpriser

https://www.flightglobal.com/network...149144.article

Qantas Group will cut domestic capacity from July through March 2023 amid cost pressures from high fuel prices, though international capacity will remain unchanged for now.

[Someone]

Kraftig fall i dag, så nede på $103, grunner resesjonsfrykt